Brentford v aston villa goals at a premium in capital clash

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Brentford v Aston Villa

Tuesday 31st January, 17:30

Live on Sky Sports 1


Brentford fell to their third successive defeat on Saturday as west London rivals Chelsea ran out comfortable 4-0 winners in their FA Cup Fourth Round skirmish at Stamford Bridge. The Bees made one change to their starting XI but were no match for the Premier League leaders, landing only two efforts on target.

Post-match, head coach Dean Smith suggested he feared an FA Cup hangover as his side go in search of their first victory in three weeks since overcoming non-league Eastleigh at Griffin Park. The Brentford boss also expects to be without star striker Scott Hogan with the 14-goal forward edging closer to a move away.

Winger Florian Jozefzoon could make his debut after signing from PSV Eindhoven but Tuesday's tussle may come too soon for left-backs Callum Elder and Rico Henry. Elsewhere, Alan Judge and Lewis Macleod remain sidelined.

Aston Villa

Aston Villa manager Steve Bruce has had to sit and suffer for 10 days having seen his side blow a 2-0 lead at home to Preston in their last action. The 2-2 stalemate represented the Villans' 12th draw of the campaign, a divisional-high.

Failure to record three points extended Villa's winless streak to five fixtures and leaves Bruce's boys nine points adrift of the top-six. To conclude the campaign in the play-off positions, the 1982 European champions are likely to require around 1.8 points per-game from now until May.

The visitors have confirmed that Mile Jedinak will not be risked but there are no new injury concerns in the camp. New additions Conor Hourihane, Birkir Bjarnason, James Bree and Henri Lansbury are all expected to be involved while Jonathan Kodjia is back in the frame.

Match Odds

Brentford [2.82] had suffered one loss in seven before their current run of three defeats in three against Newcastle, Wigan and Chelsea. In fairness, the Bees performed well for large swathes of their 2-1 home reverse to Newcastle and a poor pitch at Wigan may have contributed to their downfall.

Villa [2.80] have been chalked up as pre-match favourites but there's precious little to excite away backers on Tuesday with Steve Bruce's men bagging just two victories in 14 (W2-D5-L7) on their travels since relegation, including three losses in five trips to bottom-half sides.

Collectively the pair have contributed 9/27 (33%) draws in their respective home/away Championship encounters this term - implying odds of 3.03, suggesting there is value available in the [3.40] quote for the shares to be spoiled in the capital.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Thirteen (48%) of Brentford's league outings at Griffin Park under Dean Smith have featured fewer than three goals and although those 27 games have averaged 2.59 goals per-game, the figure drops to 2.46 when only counting 2016/17's matches.

Under 2.5 Goals has been chalked up as a [1.80] quote and there's certainly mileage in supporting that selection. Villa have seen each of their past seven games fall below the line with five of their most recent seven Championship games anywhere producing no more than a solitary strike.

The visitors' road trips are averaging only 1.57 goals per-game and 2.15 expected goals per-game. Both stats reinforce the theory that Bruce prefers a more pragmatic approach when playing away.

Recommended Bets

Back the draw @ [3.40]

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.80]